PROJECT # 1 Understanding Why Trump was elected in 2016. (15 points—15% of final grade, due week 6, day 5, Nov 1).
Your completed project 1should consist of a coherent paper, with an introduction, and a conclusion that summarizes your view, and should be a maximum of 10 single-spaced pages of text, plus any graphs and tables. The paper must include somewhere the following three components (part 1sub-sections 1 & 2; and part 2), but you can place these subsections in the paper anywhere and in any order that makes sense in terms of your overall write argument.
Part 1. Analysis of 2016 ANES (American National Election Study) Survey Data. For part 1, you will use the 2016 ANES survey data. This is a superb data set obtained by interviewing two samples of the electorate, one sample with face-to-face interviews (1,181 respondents) and one sample with self-administered internet interviews (3,090 respondents). Each sample was interviewed twice, first, before the 2016 Presidential election (Sept 7- Nov 7, 2016) and second, after the election (Nov 9, 2016-Jan 8, 2017). The data set enables you to run careful data analysis in order to get a clear idea of the distribution of views among the electorate on many issues that were key in the 2016 campaign, and are still. Note: instructions on running the ANES 2016 are below, but you will also need the document “Variables list ANES 2016” which you will find in the Documents section of the class web site.
Part 1, Sub-section 1: The issues (3 points) Discusswhere public opinion stood Sept 2016-January 2017 on three key issues (one of those can include who people voted for in 2016 and/or which political party they are registered under), and include a chart outlining the results for each of the three issues. Maximum length of text for sub-section 1 should be 2 single spaced pages, plus the three graphs
Part 1, Sub-section 2: The demographics (3 points). Performing a “Crosstabulation.” From the list of variables, focus on the demographic variables in the study. Select three of these variables (e.g Region/State, Gender, Self-Identified Race, Age, Total Pre-tax Income). Discuss how public opinion on each of the three key issues that you wrote about in sub-section 1 varies with one of these three demographic variables (can be a different demographic variable for each cross tab). This is called performing a “crosstabulation.” (For examples, see below, pp7-10.) Maximum length of text for sub-section 2 should be 2 single spaced pages, plus the three graphs.
Part 2. Interview with a Trump supporter and with a Clinton supporter (4 points—2 for each interview) Interview a Trump supporter, and a Clinton supporter, setting out each of their reasons for supporting Trump or Clinton. (By all means also include any further reflections they have after the election.) One page, single space max for each interview. Make sure to include the demographics of the persons interviewed.
Overall Paper You will receive up to an additional 5 points for putting together an interesting overall paper that includes the above, three components (i.e. Part 1, sub-section 1 and sub-section 2, and Part 2-interview with Trump and Clinton supporter) and explains why Trump got elected in 2016. The components can each be in any place in the paper. By all means bring in additional material (from class or elsewhere), and of course remember in your analysis that, although Trump won the electoral college vote, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote.
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